Recent history shows that facing the Dravidian majors in Tamil Nadu is not an easy task.
For decades, Tamil Nadu politics has been dominated by two parties – the DMK and the AIADMK. Several parties over the past 15 years have tried to come up with alternatives and bring together a third front against the Dravidian majors. But their efforts so far have had little or no impact on the area. This time, however, Tamil Nadu is witnessing a complex struggle with three main alternatives to the DMK and AIADMK alliances: Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), who has teamed up with two small parties; Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) of TTV Dhinakaran, who is entering into an alliance with DMDK of Vijayakant and AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi; and finally Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) who does it alone.
While MNM, AMMK and NTK are betting on their 3.72%, 5.27% and 5.58% share of the vote in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, maintaining a Third Front could prove to be a challenge in the political landscape of Tamil Nadu – especially if you look at the state’s poll history. TNM takes a look at the efforts of parties and fronts since 2006 trying to break the dominance of the Dravidian majors in Tamil Nadu.
In its first parliamentary elections in 2006, the DMDK had all 234 seats. Although DMDK won only one seat in Virudhachalam – that of its party leader and actor Vijayakant – it fought an impressive battle on its election debut, gaining 8.38% of the vote. For the two Dravidian majors, however, it was still no game. The DMK combine harvester received 44.8% of the vote, while the AIADMK received 39.9% of the vote. Together this results in a share of the vote of over 84%, so that only a small percentage remains for the alternative parties.
At its next appearance, three years later in the parliamentary elections in 2009, the DMDK’s share of the vote rose to 10.08%. The party had played spoilers for the AIADMK in several segments, with the DMDK asking for more votes than the profit margin. However, the two Dravidian parties together had a 48% share of the vote.
AIADMK Colonel Jayalalithaa joined the party for the 2011 general election. As the Alliance brought Jayalalithaa to power, the DMDK became the second largest party in the gathering, winning 29 of 41 contested seats. Although the DMK was pushed into third place, the party managed to hold 22.4% of the vote.
However, while Vijayakant became opposition leader in Tamil Nadu, the alliance with AIADMK turned sour after the polls, and Jayalalithaa even said she was ashamed of the association.
But after the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, when the party led the NDA alliance in Tamil Nadu, things began to unravel for ‘Captain’. Vijayakant’s party and its NDA allies failed to win a single seat, and DMDK’s share of the vote dropped to 5.19%.
There was a four-corner battle in the 2016 general election, with Ramadoss’ PMK running alone, and a third front called Makkal Nala Kootani emerged. After intensive negotiations with both the DMK and the AIADMK, Vijayakant decided to head the Makkal Nala Kootani or the People’s Welfare Front, which is made up of the left-wing parties, the VCK and the MDMK. The third front could not win a single seat again. Together, Makkal Nala Kootani received 5.52% of the vote, while DMK and AIADMK together received over 80% of the vote. The alliance collapsed shortly after the elections, and DMDK was the first to leave the alliance. The PMK also drew a loophole, while its share of the vote remained 5.4%.
In an interview with News 18, VCK founder Thol Thirumavalavan said of the formation of a third front: “The country’s third fronts usually form instantly and they don’t have a sustainable agenda. We founded Makkal Nala Kootani in 2016, but the alliance automatically collapsed after the elections. So if third fronts are formed, they must be formed with a particular agenda or ideology and should work together for at least some elections. “
Apart from that, the two Dravidian majors, together with their allies, have consistently held at least 80% of the total share of the vote, leaving no room for the third front. Even with the upcoming elections, there’s a chance the five-man fight will split the votes further, making it difficult for parties to emerge as a successful third front and break the 5% mark.
In the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, new entrants such as Kamal Haasan’s MNM and Dhinakaran’s AMMK competition took part, while Seeman’s NTK contested all 39 constituencies. While all three parties played spoilers in certain segments, they did not succeed in massively lowering the vote share of the Dravidian majors.
“Lack of grassroots presence”
With regard to the 2021 assembly elections, according to senior journalist Priyan Kalki, there is a lack of party infrastructure at the district level so that the three parties can become a strong Third Front in Tamil Nadu. The Naam Tamilar Katchi are gradually improving and they have committed voters, but their growth is more organic and it could take longer to emerge as the Third Front, he said.
In the case of Makkal Needhi Maiam, he said: “In order for a party to emerge as the Third Front, it should at least hold all 234 seats alone, as DMDK did in 2006. Their alliance with lesser known parties like AISMK and IJK, however, requires their vision to be questioned and only shows that they do not have the infrastructure to fight independently and deploy people in all 234 places. “
Like Priyan, political analyst Raveenthran Duraisamy argued that MNM should have won more seats, calling Kamal’s move to give AISMK and IJK almost 40 seats wrong.
Raveenthran said, “MNM is watching the voices of the urban elites, brahmins and linguistic minorities. Now Kamal Haasan is also trying to get the votes of the minorities in Coimbatore and he is working towards a victory in his place.”
AMMK’s prospects also depend on AIADMK’s chances of winning and they just want to curtail the ruling party’s votes, explained Priyan Kalki. Creating a strong grassroots presence can only help the parties to distinguish themselves as the Third Front, said the senior journalist.
Priyan Kalki explained: “The DMK has been dealing with electoral politics and AIADMK for 70 years and has been fighting for 50 years. That is why its leaders have sought to create a space for the party from the grassroots, and people will not find it easy to change their allegiance to dravidian parties. “
However, Raveenthran stated that the three parties are competing for votes from different social classes, and he believed that all three are likely to see growth. But Priyan noted that it is the BJP to look out for in the state. “If there is any other party working closely to create a dent in Tamil Nadu, it is the BJP that is creating hybrid growth in the state. With the help of the Union government, they are increasing the infrastructure at the district level. The chances for MNM and NTK can only increase if they create a basic presence, ”he said.
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